Summary
- Bitcoin recently broke below the key resistance level of $22,264.
- This is not the first time Bitcoin has broken this key resistance level in a bear market.
- Long-term holders on aggregate are now underwater with their investments.
Analysis of Long-Term Holder Metrics
The chart presented here shows two classic on-chain metrics for Long-Term Holders (LTH): Realized Price and MVRV Ratio. LTH Realized Price is calculated as the average price of the LTH BTC supply at the day each coin last transacted on-chain. This serves as an ‘on-chain cost basis’ for these investors. The MVRV Ratio is the ratio between the market value (MV) and realized value (RV) for this cohort, which allows visualization of Bitcoin market cycles and unrealized profitability.
Breaking Below Key Resistance Level
On February 9th 2021, Bitcoin broke down below its long-term holder’s cost basis—currently priced at $22,264. This has happened multiple times before during bear markets in June 2012, November 2015, and April 2019. Breaking below this resistance level indicates that long-term holders on aggregate are now underwater with their investments.
Implications of Breaking Resistance Level
Breaking below this key resistance level can have a range of implications for investors in Bitcoin, especially long-term holders who may be feeling particularly wary right now due to their current losses. It could indicate that further downside could be coming if Bitcoin stays below this support level or it could suggest that we may already be near a bottom so investors should start looking to buy back in soon.
